Saudi Arabia Expects Temperatures Up to 3°C Above Normal in October 2026

The Saudi National Center for Meteorology (NCM) expects temperatures across several regions of Saudi Arabia to be higher than normal during October 2026, with an increase of up to 3°C above the seasonal average in some areas. The forecast also indicates higher than usual rainfall across most parts of the Kingdom.

These predictions were published in the NCM climate report on October 4, 2026, covering the expected weather conditions for the final three months of the year, from October to December.

Which Regions Are Expected to See the Highest Temperature Increase?

According to the National Center for Meteorology, the areas expected to experience the highest temperatures compared to seasonal averages include parts of southeastern Makkah, eastern Al Baha, most of Asir except its western areas, northeastern Jazan, and most of Najran except its eastern areas.

The forecast also includes southern and southwestern parts of the Eastern Province, as well as southern Riyadh.

This does not mean temperatures will be 3°C higher in every city across Saudi Arabia. The increase refers to the expected difference between average temperatures during October and the historical averages for the same period.

Will Temperatures Remain Above Normal Until the End of 2026?

The NCM forecast indicates that temperatures will remain above their seasonal averages throughout October, November and December, although the difference is expected to decrease as winter approaches.

While temperatures could reach 3°C above normal in October, the increase is expected to drop to 2.5°C in November and 1.5°C in December.

This does not necessarily mean December will be warmer than October. Instead, it means the average temperature in each month could be higher than what is normally recorded during that time of year.

What Do These Forecasts Mean?

The forecast suggests that Saudi Arabia could experience a warmer autumn than usual, even as temperatures gradually decrease following the end of summer.

It is important to understand the difference between monthly climate forecasts and daily weather forecasts. Climate predictions are based on temperature averages over longer periods and do not necessarily mean that every day in October will be hotter than normal.

Following updates from the National Center for Meteorology remains the best way to stay informed about changes in temperatures and rainfall across Saudi Arabia in the coming weeks.